Some problems for conditionalization and reflection

Frank Arntzenius

pp. 163-176

in: Horacio Arló-Costa, Vincent F. Hendricks, Johan van Benthem (eds), Readings in formal epistemology, Berlin, Springer, 2016

Abstract

I will present five puzzles which show that rational people can update their degrees of belief in manners that violate Bayesian Conditionalization and van Fraassen's Reflection Principle. I will then argue that these violations of Conditionalization and Reflection are due to the fact that there are two, as yet unrecognized, ways in which the degrees of belief of rational people can develop.