Decision theory without "independence" or without "ordering"

Teddy Seidenfeld

pp. 361-384

in: Horacio Arló-Costa, Vincent F. Hendricks, Johan van Benthem (eds), Readings in formal epistemology, Berlin, Springer, 2016

Abstract

It is a familiar argument that advocates accommodating the paradoxes of decision theory by abandoning the "independence" postulate. After all, if we grant that choice reveals preference, the anomalous choice patterns of the Allais and Ellsberg problems (reviewed in section "Review of the Allais and Ellsberg "Paradoxes") violate postulate P2 ('sure thing") of Savage's (The foundations of statistics. Wiley, New York, 1954) system.