Decision theory with complex uncertainties

Dilip B. Madan

J. C. Owings

pp. 25-44

in: Synthese 75 (1), 1988.

Abstract

A case is made for supposing that the total probability accounted for in a decision analysis is less than unity. This is done by constructing a measure on the set of all codes for computable functions in such a way that the measure of every effectively accountable subset is bounded by a number β<1. The consistency of these measures with the Savage axioms for rational preference is established. Implications for applied decision theory are outlined.