Causal probability

John L. Pollock

pp. 143-185

in: James H. Fetzer (ed), Propensities and probabilities, Synthese 132, 2002.

Abstract

Examples growing out of the Newcomb problem have convinced many people that decision theory should proceed in terms of some kind of causal probability. I endorse this view and define and investigate a variety of causal probability. My definition is related to Skyrms' definition, but proceeds in terms of objective probabilities rather than subjective probabilities and avoids taking causal dependence as a primitive concept.