Non-zero probabilities for universal generalizations

Ruurik Holm

pp. 4001-4007

in: Synthese 190 (18), 2013.

Abstrakt

This article discusses the classical problem of zero probability of universal generalizations in Rudolf Carnap’s inductive logic. A correction rule for updating the inductive method on the basis of evidence will be presented. It will be shown that this rule has the effect that infinite streams of uniform evidence assume a non-zero limit probability. Since Carnap’s inductive logic is based on finite domains of individuals, the probability of the corresponding universal quantification changes accordingly. This implies that universal generalizations can receive positive prior and posterior probabilities, even for (countably) infinite domains.

Cited authors

Carnap Rudolf