Mechanistic probability

Marshall Abrams

pp. 343-375

in: Synthese 187 (2), 2012.

Abstract

I describe a realist, ontologically objective interpretation of probability, “far-flung frequency (FFF) mechanistic probability”. FFF mechanistic probability is defined in terms of facts about the causal structure of devices and certain sets of frequencies in the actual world. Though defined partly in terms of frequencies, FFF mechanistic probability avoids many drawbacks of well-known frequency theories and helps causally explain stable frequencies, which will usually be close to the values of mechanistic probabilities. I also argue that it’s a virtue rather than a failing of FFF mechanistic probability that it does not define single-case chances, and compare some aspects of my interpretation to a recent interpretation proposed by Strevens.